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A staff engineer argues that AI coding tools are improving fast enough to make most software engineering jobs obsolete within a decade, and that past predictions of industry doom don't apply because those technologies never actually replaced programmers while AI likely will.
- AI agents are already better than many engineers at code maintenance and debugging, not just writing new code, which undermines the argument that humans will always be needed to clean up AI-generated code.
- Junior and mid-level engineers will face job losses first; senior staff engineers supervising AI agents may survive longer, but this represents a massive contraction in total engineering headcount, not job security.
- The Jevons effect (increased demand offsetting productivity gains) probably won't save the industry because AI can handle both code creation and maintenance equally well, unlike past automation waves that only eliminated specific tasks.